莱坊国际(Knight Frank):2021-2022年非洲房地产投资潜力指南(英文版)(23页).pdf

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1、AFRICA HORIZONSA UNIQUE GUIDE TO REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES2021/2022Market resilienceInnovationHealth and wellnessContents04.Big interview07.Market resilienceAgainst a backdrop of uncertainty, Africas real estate sector is showing its strength08. Africa calling10. Where is the money?11. Di

2、rection of travel14. Shopping list16. Are you being served?18. Our view19.InnovationHow new ways of thinking and a step change in connectivity are fuelling growth 20. The heat is on22. The green machine24. Food for thought28. Get connected30. Creative thinking31.Health & wellnessIn a post-pandemic w

3、orld, quality of life is top of the agenda for investors and developers32. Home sweet home36. Working it out38. The wellness opportunity40.Conclusion40. Our world in data41. Knight Frank in AfricaI am delighted to welcome you to the second edition of our Africa Horizons reportThis past year has been

4、 in very many ways an extraordinary one for the global economy and real estate. Behavioural shifts as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic forced us to rethink how we interact and occupy space in markets across the world. However, it has also been a testament to the breadth of opportunities and market

5、resilience that Africa continues to present. For this reason, we start off the report by interviewing South African venture capitalist Vusi Thembekwayo, who shares his thought-provoking views on how to capitalise on the African opportunity.The world over, Covid-19 has supercharged some of the longer

6、-term trends that were already emerging pre-pandemic, such as sustainability, health, wellness and innovation. In this edition, using data and insights from our teams across the continent, we illustrate how these themes are taking shape in Africa. For example, our article on page 20 details the futu

7、re of African cities in the light of changing climatic conditions, while on page 28 we outline the factors shaping the growing need for data centres. And, recognising that real estate is about living as well as investing, on page 32 we explore changing attitudes towards home ownership. Further, thro

8、ughout the report we endeavour to predict what will come next in sectors including commercial offices, healthcare and agriculture, so our clients are well placed to capitalise on these opportunities.This year marks the 125th anniversary of the formation of Knight Frank. As a business, we have contin

9、ued to grow radically, including our commitment to Africa. From our first office in Lagos, opened in 1964, to a growing team of over 400 experienced professionals based in nine African countries and operating regularly in 43 of the continents 54 sovereign nations, we deliver innovative advice that c

10、reates tangible value for our clients, while all the time working responsibly, in partnership, to enhance peoples lives and environments.I hope you enjoy Africa Horizons and find it useful and thought provoking. If my team can be of any help, do get in touch. You can find their contact details at th

11、e end of this report.James LewisManaging Director, Knight Frank Middle East and AfricaWelcomeCommissioned byJames Lewis Managing Director, Knight Frank Middle East and AfricaEditorial team Tilda Mwai Andrew ShirleyContributors Stephen Beard Betty Cox Anthony Duggan Winnie Gachagua Nick Gaertner Davi

12、d Goatman Anthony Havelock Sharon Kamayangi Gireesh Kumar Ian Lawrence Charles Macharia Cameron McDonald Charles Onyenze Victoria Ormond Arturo PavaniPR and Marketing Sarah Guppy Melissa Hughes Cynthia KimolaCreative Quiddity Media LimitedData partner fDi Intelligence32South African venture capitali

13、st Vusi Thembekwayo highlights the opportunities on offer to investors across Africa and tackles the tough questions the continent needs to answer before it can fulfil its true potential Interview: Andrew ShirleyNothing ventured, nothing gainedHow quickly do you think the continent can bounce back f

14、rom the Covid-19 pandemic? My expectation is that its going to be a very long L-shaped recovery and then well begin to see some shoots again. A big part of the challenge is that many of the economies in the continent were already in trouble pre-Covid. In the southern region youve got Swaziland, Leso

15、tho, Botswana and then Namibia, all of them tethered to the economy of South Africa. So, its going to take a while, in my estimation. And especially for households, the middle class and the consumer class. Because of the pandemic, a lot of businesses have had to adapt, becoming much more flexible an

16、d entrepreneurial and creating new ways to service their clients. Is that something thats happening in Africa? In many organisations, big or small, it seems to me pre-Covid that the biggest barrier to shifting and changing towards more aggressive use of technology was people felt that technology was

17、nt ready. If theres one thing Covid has proven, its that the technology was always capable and was always ready. It was the humanness and the desire to keep things as they were, rather than to move to a new world of work, that was holding things back. Particularly in our part of the world, weve seen

18、 an incredible increase in the usage of online technologies, the use of online productivity tools across organisations and across businesses. Both services businesses and industrial businesses have really had to think about how they automate processes, how do they then streamline those processes onc

19、e theyve been automated, how do they collapse some of those processes so they can get from point A to point Z in a much shorter space of time and become more price competitive? And most importantly its driven these massive localisation programmes where were seeing some of the large S&P 500 companies

20、 talking about localising key and critical parts of their supply chains in Africa. And thats going to accelerate the rate at which these businesses are able to adopt new technologies. So, Ive been very excited to see the rate of technology adoption and the speed with which people have taken to this

21、new reality, as everybody now calls it. Do you think Africa could become more competitive and fulfil some of the roles for the rest of the world that China has been fulfilling because of these changes? I think well increasingly see more African countries move away from primary industries as a major

22、source of GDP towards secondary and tertiary industries and beneficiating some of those goods and services. For instance, youre mining a particular mineral, youre mining cobalt, but youre not in the production of lithium ion batteries, right. Or, youre not in the production of smartphones, but youre

23、 mining the raw minerals that go into them. Rwanda has set up a facility there for the mass production of mobile phones. And then Durban in a special economic zone, theyve set up Mara Phones to make smartphones in Africa, for Africans. What in your view are the biggest potential barriers to unlockin

24、g the potential that weve just discussed? I have the incredible privilege of travelling the continent. Most young people in this continent dont want charity. They just want the opportunity. But in many of those economies, the opportunities are locked out, they are concentrated in a power base of the

25、 few. The economies tend to be oligopolistic, that is to say dominated by a few large players with very little room for new space and new innovation. And the capital markets are not particularly deep, so even if young people want to do something enterprising, they dont have the means to do so. Those

26、 are the issues that weve got to face. I think we have to create a new narrative by delivering new realities. Its just that simple in my mind. Africa accounts for a very small share of global FDI despite the huge potential of its natural and human capital. If you were talking to an overseas investor

27、s considering Africa, would you try to persuade them to make the jump? Its interesting you ask me that, because thats literally the project Im working on now. Were busy raising a pan-African mezzanine fund that will look at highly industrialised technology. So, heres the pitch. At a macro level, you

28、ve got a population thats getting younger. Youve got GDPs that are growing. Youve got increases in levels of literacy and growth in the debt capital markets. All of these things fuel and are the inputs for a strong middle class.The challenge, and this is what I say to global partners and investors,

29、is that you have to see Africa for what it is, not for what it pretends to be. Africa in my mind is the US in the 1920s before the idea of a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage. We have a long way to go, but Im very excited. I always say this to global investors. There is huge opportunity

30、 in the short term for massive upside in Africa. Massive upside. But the real opportunity is in the long term. Its buy to hold. From your own experience creating numerous businesses and working with other entrepreneurs across Africa, what sectors and locations excite you the most? Thats an interesti

31、ng question. Africa is not a winners-and-losers economy, which the rest of the world tends to be. And the reason for that is because many of those economies have matured, so the only way one part of the economy can grow is if it steals market share from another. Thats not the case with Africa. The b

32、ase is so low that all the sectors are rising at the same time. So, textiles is growing, property is growing. If you want to move into alternative asset classes, cryptos are growing, forex is growing, financial services are growing. Then you look at IT, and thats growing too. In education, look at G

33、etSmarter and its listing on the Nasdaq, and the valuation of that. You want to look at fintech, look at Stripe buying Paystack, and you get a sense of the opportunities. So, you know, this is a part of my excitement about the continent. In Africa, for instance, youve got massive growth in residenti

34、al housing but I think well increasingly see more African countries move away from primary industries as a major source of GDP towards secondary and tertiary industries and beneficiating some of those goods and services. “54Theres a growth in retail chains that are looking for new markets, so theyre

35、 moving from markets like South Africa, like Nigeria, into the rest of the continent. “youve also got huge growth in the commercial sector. Its not that people are migrating from one to the other. Thats not the case at all. Its that people are interested in getting across all of these because its th

36、e rise of a continent thats been in the dark for 300 years. Are there any specific real estate sectors where you feel there are opportunities?If youre making an investment case social services, or what is called the cluster of social welfare, will continue to be a huge economic driver in much of the

37、 continent. This is because many governments dont have the capacity to deliver those social services. As a consequence, they then become privatised and, because theyre privatised, theres huge opportunity for upside. Partners of ours, for instance, operate a healthcare fund. Theyre listed in South Af

38、rica and in Rwanda and theyre seeing huge opportunities for healthcare across the continent. If youre in financial services, again, hugely profitable. If youre in education, you will have to be a bad operator with a bad business model and be a bad business person to not make money. The average Afric

39、an mother and father believes that their childrens quality of life and their future prospects are 100% determined by the calibre of the education they receive. So for me, those three are big. And then of course theres the constant underdog, and shes an underdog because its not a sexy industry, but i

40、ts a hugely profitable industry if you can get the play right, and thats the agricultural industry. So, again, other partners of ours operate food funds. Theyve just bought an asset in Kenya, which is a dairy asset. The volume growth is unbelievable. Theres growth in retail chains that are looking f

41、or new markets, so theyre moving from markets like South Africa, like Nigeria, into the rest of the continent. But they need to protect their supply chains, so theyre signing huge contracts with single players to get goods into the rest of the continent. When you have a dairy asset that can produce

42、and distribute goods from one country to 17 others, thats a hugely lucrative play. So, this is why I said to you, it really is a rising tides elevating all ships, and to make all of this happen, a new asset class that will be doing exceptionally well is logistics, freight and transportation. Do you

43、think the pan-African free trade agreement thats recently been ratified is going to create more opportunities for intra-African trade, so Africa doesnt have to rely quite so much on the rest of the world? Absolutely. I do. I think the Africa free trade agreement is a fantastic start. It really is. I

44、 only have one worry. What you really need is for individual regions and economies to collaborate where they have comparative advantage, not cannibalise each other. So, theres no point developing a huge industrial textiles centre in the east and then the west of Africa tries to do the same thing.If

45、you think about Africa as a single market area in my mind theres a real opportunity to say, “So how do we collaborate in the value chain that would mean the rise of Africa?” If you get into that, then what happens is you build an entire value chain of opportunities that can really elevate all the ot

46、her parts of the continent.Youve got a real vision for the continent. Can you predict what the future holds for Africa in this next decade?Thats a very good question. I think there is a low road and a high road. The low road is a continuation of the vested interests in North America, Europe and Asia

47、 that uses Africa, by proxy, as a place from which to extract talent and raw materials, and by so doing not allowing the continent real opportunities to grow into her own stride.It will perpetuate the strong man syndrome. It will create social instability. It will continue to create mass migration a

48、nd all of those, as Europe has seen recently, sooner or later become a problem for the rest of the world. So, thats the low road. Thats one scenario. The other scenario, the high road, is that Africans themselves create an agenda for Africa. Last year, I travelled to this incredible place, its a sla

49、ve island off the coast of Senegal. I get goosebumps just thinking about it. Going through that experience and realising the voyage that slaves were put through and the period of time over which slavery happened, and then the realisation that slavery happened because in part it was facilitated by Af

50、ricans, that there were Africans living here who were trading their brothers and sisters, selling them off to the rest of the world. I realised then that is the danger of an Africa that doesnt have its own agenda. It is open to being exploited. This is why, when you asked the question about the free

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